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- GDP fell by 0.1% in Q2, opposite to our forecast final month of a slight improve, solely the sectors of electrical energy and gasoline, water provide and administration and distribution, inns and eating places posting stronger than anticipated performances.
- In July, PMI surveys recorded declines for the companies, manufacturing and building sectors, with the latter posting essentially the most worrisome decline, falling under the impartial 50 for the primary time since January 2021.
- Regardless of the financial slowdown, the seek for certified personnel continues in each companies and manufacturing, with the quantity rising in July for a seventeenth consecutive month.
- Our second nowcast for the UK financial system for the third quarter requires a contraction of 0.1%, with development prone to sluggish additional as inflation dampens shopper demand.
“It now seems that the UK financial system entered a recession within the second quarter of this yr, with GDP falling by 0.1%, and we count on output to proceed to fall over the subsequent three quarters. On the spending facet, the decline within the second quarter was pushed by a 0.2% decline in consumption; on the manufacturing facet, by a decline of 0.4 per cent in companies, notably well being and social work. GDP fell 0.6% in June after a revised 0.4% rise in Could as Platinum Jubilee celebrations affected month-to-month profiles.
Stephane Millard
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting
